By now, everyone knows that tonight’s Final Four in San Antonio will be the first time that all four #1 seeds have all survived and advanced to meet in the national semifinals. So if you thought the Tar Heels had a tough road through the East Regional (they did), as he saying goes, “You ain’t seen nothin’ yet!” Tonight’s game (estimated 8:47pm tipoff) against Kansas is almost certain to be a classic. If nothing else, it’s a chance to see at least six future NBA first round draft choices. Unfortunately, only half of that impressive accumulation of talent will be wearing Carolina blue, while the other half will be wearing a darker shade.
So what will make the difference? That’s a tough question, mainly because the two teams are so evenly matched.
Interior: Carolina would seem to have an edge on the interior with National Player of the Year Tyler Hansbrough (who’s “Coach, what about breakfast?” comment is an instant classic) and his comrades Deon Thompson and Alex Stepheson. However, Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson and Sasha Kaun are far from ‘chopped liver’ and will certainly hold their own. Still, Hansbrough’s force of will, if nothing else, seems to give the Heels a slight edge in the post.
Perimeter: Although Hansbrough vs. Arthur/Kaun will be important, this game will likely be decided on the perimeter: Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green for the Heels, matching up against Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush and Russell Robinson. The two trios are, like their interior counterparts, evenly matched in many ways, although Carolina wants to run more than Kansas, and likely runs better than any team in the country, even the Jayhawks. Nevertheless, two keys seem to be indisputable: Ellington and Green. If they both shoot poorly (and all Tar Heels’ fans know about the Heels’ history of problems with perimeter scorers shooting feebly in Final Four dome games), the Tar Heels will not march on to Monday night’s Championship Game. Some frightening cumulative stats from Carolina’s two losses (to Duke and Maryland) earlier this season: Ellington, 9-30 FG (30.0%), 2-13 3-PT FG (15.4%); Green, 5-23 FG (21.7%), 1-9 3-PT FG (11.1%). Compare those to numbers to Ellington and Green’s combined stats in the Heels’ win over Duke in the last game of the regular season: 14-28 FG (50.0%); 4-7 3-PT FG (57.1%).
If you’re interested in more information, Inside Carolina once again offers a well-done, detailed preview.
