triangle.com | Home

Your location is ...   [change] Share your photos, news and more!  [sign in or register]
Search

Odds of Asteroid-Mars Impact in Late January

Java55

Anybody want to place some odds on this?

Asteroid on track for possible Mars hit January 30
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news151.html

Sometimes if it is even remotely possible it can and will happen:
Remember Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 ...(?)
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap980728.html

Average rating
(0 votes)

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Java55

Odds of Asteroid-Mars Impact Update: Dec. 28, 2007

From: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2007-152

Updated Dec. 28, 2007 -- Astronomers have identified asteroid 2007 WD 5 in archival imagery. With these new observations, scientists at NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif have refined their trajectory estimates for the asteroid. Based on this latest analysis, the odds for the asteroid impacting Mars on Jan. 30 are now 1-in-25 -- or about 4 percent.

Java55

Keeping track on asteroid 2007 WD5

This does appear to have the potential to become quite a show if it hits.

Near Earth Object Program
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/

...and as I am typing, NASA's Phoenix Mars Lander has already passed the halfway point and is scheduled for a Mars landing on May 25, 2008.

Lets see, already we have NASA's Mars Odyssey and NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter both making observations and relaying data while in Mars orbit along with ESA's Mars Express, and NASA's twin Rovers (Spirit and Opportunity) are still operational on the planet's surface...  From the way things look presently with all these eyes in the sky above and upon the surface of Mars and with one more on the way, it appears things could potentially get really interesting in the not too distant future.

 

Java55

Mars impact probability to decrease slightly to about 3.6%

As for why there was a delay in posting I haven't a clue but here is an update from January 2, 2008

From Near Earth Object Program
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news154.html

Additional position observations for asteroid 2007 WD5 taken on December 29 through January 2 have been used to improve the accuracy of the asteroid's orbit. As a result, the range of possible paths past Mars has narrowed by a factor of 3 and the most likely path has moved a little farther away from the planet, causing the Mars impact probability to decrease slightly to 3.6% (about one chance in 28). The new positional observations were made using the 2.4 meter telescope at New Mexico Tech's Magdalena Ridge Observatory and reported by astronomer Bill Ryan. It seems likely that as additional observations further shrink the uncertainty region of this asteroid, the region will no longer intersect Mars and the impact probability will quickly drop to zero.

 

Java55

Mars impact probability estimate has fallen to 2.5%

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/2007wd5/

Now there is a webpage (link above) dedicated to just this asteroid.
As of January 8, 2008 the impact probability estimate has fallen to 2.5%, or 1-in-40 odds.

Java55

Mars Impact is now about 1 in 10,000

It appears the odds are now evaporating quickly as more precise measurements are being collected, but there's still that one chance, that is until they rule it out or the asteroid passes harmlessly by (or maybe not?). 

For a full story:

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news156.html