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so, what's the big, exciting news today?  gas prices? mortgage defaults? water shortages? global warming?

what i find fascinating is that, of all the wide range of things i read, most of the NON-public-media reports consistently show much lower levels of worry and "excitement" about these "critical" issues "facing all of us today."

reports from Jason Kelly [ http://www.jasonkelly.com/ ] for example, repeatedly tell me that the flaming headlines about ups and downs in financial reports and economic indicators are overblown.  the reality of these indicators is so far removed from our real life, it's like watching the speedometer on your car, and as it goes from 0 to 35, you panic because it's obviously going to go to 150 in a few more minutes and kill lots of innocent pedestrians and other motorists! ...... except it isn't... you're going to take your foot off the gas long before that.

the "subprime mortgage meltdown" is another.  the Wall Street Digest [ http://www.wallstreetdigest.com/ ], and Ken Fisher's reports from Fisher Investments [ http://www.fi.com ] consistently describe how the subprime mortgage market is such a small percentage of the total economy that, if ALL of those people were to lose their homes or mortgages, it would be something like one tenth of one percent of the gross national product of the country!   until something hits a few percent or maybe five percent, it doesn't move the needle.  it won't go blasting through the economy and bring us all to our economic knees.....

but the media never paints it that way.... it's the difference between what's called "enthusiasm" and "excitement."

enthusiasm is what you bring to life, work, relationships.  excitement is a six-year-old running in circles [no offense intended to any six-year-olds who don't do this... :)]

but the media, both print and electronic, seem to love blasting us with how important these things are, and it saddens me that so many people seem to follow their lead and believe this junk that they continue to do it.

inflation really starts with the money supply, which Bernanke does NOT control.  he's the trim-tab on the rudder of the ship of state's economy.  he can influence the direction, but the guys stoking the boilers that drive the speed (inflation) of the ship are the guys who are printing the money. 

you won't see that in your paper or on tv.

gas prices?  beat up on the oil companies.  big is bad, right?  they make billions of dollars, and gee, shouldn't they give it back to us and be nice guys?   well, if a hurricane knocks out a bunch of refineries and oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, who's going to PAY for their repair???

"the oil companies" should pay, scream the media.... duh!  where do they get the money to pay for the repairs???  from their investments and their cash flow.   who provides the cash flow?  we do, by buying their gas, oil, diesel, and so on.   yet our congress perennially talks about "windfall profits taxes" on any kind of large industry. 

does the media ever stop and say, "hey, you guys... cut it out... if you want more gasoline, we need to increase SUPPLIES of crude oil!!!"  

no, be afraid of Exxon Valdez oil spills [which nature fixed in just a few years by itself, thanks.... [ http://valdezscience.com/ ].  but you won't see that side on your tv screen when more EXCITING headlines are scarier....

i started collecting some of these issues on my personal site, http://www.plusaf.com/soapbox/bullcrap.htm just for fun, since my site gets very few hits, but it's fun for me to play with.

one of my favorite "excitement" stories of this year was the "vanishing forests" shrill-a-thons from this spring and summer.... my wife and i drove 'cross country and back on vacation this year, starting in Raleigh, then up through West Virginia and west through KY, IN, NE, and so on, all the way to California.

you know what i noticed?  the only places there aren't forests of trees is where farms are growing things, broad rivers flow, or where the climate doesn't support them at all, like the high desert in Wyoming, for examples.

there are TONS of trees out there!  anyone who thinks the USA is being denuded of its forests have been looking out of their car window at too many local developments that they pass as they go to and from work....  if they were to point their car five or ten or twenty miles away from Raleigh in virtually any direction, they'd be surrounded by trees.  fly over the eastern US.... nearly covered with trees.  no shortage.

but no, we're all gonna die because all the trees are being cut down....

nice headlines, nice "excitement" but not true.

sort of like the "teaser" ads for the 11pm weather report.

when tv stations have to generate "excitement" to get people to tune in to the eleven o'clock weather, trust me, nearly all is lost.

it reminds me of one such teaser for a news program i saw a few years ago... the announcer breathlessly invites: "find out why this United Airlines jet was forced to return to the airport shortly after takeoff!!!!!"

i'd turned to my wife and whispered, "they lost an engine after takeoff."

yep, that was it, all right... they lost an engine. the jet had two to start with, and FAA rules "forced" them to land because they hadn't gotten to the "point of no return" for that flight.  yep, it landed safely.  nope, nobody was hurt.  nervous, probably, but injured, no.

but exciting for a few minutes for the viewers?  maybe.

when will this stop?

plusaf
alan falk
northwest raleigh